To evaluate a rental property you need to know four things.
Income, expenses, standard rules of thumb for quick gauges of
value, and fuzzy logic.

Income
When it comes to income, you can not trust what the MLS printout
shows. The income is likely too low or two high. You need to
develop your own sense of rental values. Being off by several hundred
dollars in rent can make a HUGE difference. For example,
$100 per month of cash flow at 5% is worth about $25,000, so
if your rental estimates are off by $400 you might under or over
value a property by $100,000. Also, it is not too hard to do a
rental survey. I have four methods. You can look at what competing
units are asking for rent. Compare the MLS advertised rents
versus what other units advertise as rents on the MLS. There are
also several web sites that can provide comparisons. And finally, I
check with local property managers.

Expenses
As a general rule of thumb, expenses should run about 40% of
gross monthly rents. These expenses include, property taxes,
insurance, property management, property maintenance, utilities,
gardening, and licensing.

Rules of Thumb - Quick Gauges of Value
My first quick gauge of value is the Gross Rents Multiplier, (GRM
or GM for short). If a building is selling for 10 times its Gross
Annual rents, then it would have a GM of 10x. Example, 10 units
x $1,000 per unit x 12 months x 10x GM = $1,200,000. Pretty
simple.

The GM allows me to quickly tell if a building will make sense
or not. It certainly depends on area, because better areas will sell
at a higher GM. But for the properties I was evaluating, I simply
wouldn’t be interested if the GM was above 12x, providing me
with a quick way to screen out properties that didn’t cash flow
well enough.

My second check to review is rents per square foot. Rents in marginal
areas might be $1 per sqft, while high rent districts might be
$2 per sqft. This is helpful because it can confirm quickly if the
rents that I have calculated are in line with the area. If the figure
is high, maybe I am being too optimistic, and if I have calculated
a figure that is low, maybe there is more upside potential.

I also might use this figure to quickly determine what a buildings
rents might be. Let’s say I want to quickly calculate the monthly
rent of an 8 unit building with a broad mix of different size units.
Rather than estimate each units rent, I could just take the total
building sqft and multiply it by a typical rent per sqft rate for a
quick estimate of total building income. This can greatly increase
my ability to sort through lots of properties.

Fuzzy Logic
Up to this point we have talked about income and expenses from
a purely theoretical point of view. But some buildings and areas
are better than others. It is necessary to walk the building and the
surrounding area to help you determine some of the subjective
issues. Basically, I want a low maintenance building that attracts
a decent quality of tenant that will pay the rent and not want to
leave.

Are there garages? Is the building appealing? What is the condition?
Is it a high maintenance or low maintenance building? Are
there separate gas and electric meters? What might the vacancy
factor be? Would it be a management headache? Is there a lot of
competition in the neighborhood for tenants?

Final Analysis
If a building passes all of the above tests, then I will plug the
numbers into a quick excel spread sheet to determine actual cash
flow numbers with real expenses. The spread sheet enables me to
determine actual cash flows, returns on cash, internal returns and
allows you to test out different scenarios.

I would be happy to send you the excel spread sheet that I use to
evaluate properties. E-mail me a request (John@LBRE.com).

Kurt Newnes, a very good local property manager said to me “I
try to find all of the reasons not to buy a building, and if I can’t
find any I buy it”. But the caveat to this is, “I might have to look
at 50 - 100 buildings”. Wise advice from a smart man.

Labels: apartments, evaluate flow, gross multiplier, rental properties

Last year, we began looking to purchase a piece of income property with a partner. Our search started with the 5+ unit category because this is traditionally where you find the best cash flow.

After scouring the market for 6 months, we came across very little inventory, and even less attractive deals. If the Real Estate market was so bad, where were all of the good deals? If you read my last newsletter entitled “The Tail of Two Cities”, it states that more desirable markets were less affected because risky financing was more widely used in only the marginal areas.

A similar scenario applies to the income property market. Lenders never made risky loans in the 5+ unit market. Purchasing a large building has ALWAYS required a large down payment, usually 35%+. In addition to a large down payment, lenders require the rental income, after ALL expenses, to more than cover the loan payments. So with conservative underwriting, and well healed investors, these owners have not been desperate to sell or would face foreclosure.

So where were all the great deals? I thought I would follow my nose, and sniff for the scent of foreclosures. To find foreclosures just look where lenders made stupid loans.

Unlike large apartment loans, 2-4 unit financing is underwritten much like single family loans. There were loan programs for everyone, even the indigent. This would be a good place to start.

So after exhausting our choices in the 5+ market, I decided to look at the 2- 4 unit market, and what I found was the complete opposite. Lots of foreclosures, with prices having corrected aggressively. I found the best performing 2-4 properties were 3 & 4 unit properties that had more square footage. Two unit properties often get priced more like single family homes, because they may be owner occupied. So in looking for good cash flow in the 2-4 unit market I restricted my search to 3 & 4 unit properties.

After a full day of looking at thirty smaller properties, I concluded that 3 & 4 unit properties cash flowed as well as the 5+ unit properties. To boot, there were lots choices, unlike the limited inventory for 5+ units, and 3 & 4 unit properties are easier to finance.

It appeared to be that smaller units were cash flowing as well as bigger buildings. This was something I had never seen in 20 years of Real Estate. This shouldn’t be! Think of the 5+ unit market as the arena where the big boys play, where investors expect good cash flow. Investors must put down 30% or 40%, but in exchange, they get a quantity discount.

What was happening here? Relative values were not in line with historical norms. So I did some digging, and this is what I found.

Determining Value
First I had to decide how I was going to value a large number of properties for comparison. Income property is valued based upon the income method. Unfortunately, income data is difficult to obtain and is often unreliable. Advertised rents can be below market if an owner hasn’t raised them or they can be above market “pie in the sky” wishful thinking. Additionally, some units are owner occupied or vacant and show no income.

If I were to quickly review hundreds of buildings, using income data would be out of the question. But I could use a buildings total square footage, which is loosely related to a buildings income. I say loosely because rents can range from $1 per sqft in the least desirable neighborhoods to $2 per sqft in some of the most desirable areas. While income figures are NOT reliable on the MLS, building sqft is reliable because it is obtained directly from the tax assessor data, and auto populated into the MLS printout, so an agent can’t screw it up.

What the Results show.



The above chart shows 3 & 4 unit properties starting to correct right when the credit crunch hit in the 3rd quarter of 2007, at the same time that home prices started tanking. If 3 & 4 unit properties sold for $270 per sqft and now are priced at $150 per sqft this represents a whopping 45 percent correction. Not surprisingly, since January of 2007 there were 75 foreclosures or short pays that sold in this 3 & 4 unit category.

The 5+ unit market is a different world and has performed much differently. While the 3 & 4 unit market has been ravaged by foreclosures and short pays, there hasn’t been one 5+ unit property that was a distressed sale. So while 3 & 4 unit prices started dropping, 5+ unit prices held there value, for a while. Then 9 months later, 5+ apartment prices started to correct. They were pressured by the 3 & 4 unit property prices. If 5+ unit properties peaked at around $200 per sqft and now sell for $150 - $160 per sqft, this represents only a 20 - 25% correction.

Sales Volume and what this says about the market.
The number of 3-4 unit sales has been brisk, rising nicely back up from the depths of the credit crunch to respectable levels. Banks have set aggressive list prices to move these properties. With a 45% correction in this category and good deals to be found, buyers are stepping in aggressively to purchase. I have seen some astoundingly good deals in this category, and evidently other buyers see the same opportunity.

The number of sales for 5+ units on the other hand is very weak. Owners of 5+ apartment properties aren’t interested in selling at the price that banks are liquidating 3 & 4 unit properties. In the second half of 2008, there were a total of only 14 sales in all of Long Beach for 5+ unit apartments. Since risky financing in this category wasn’t allowed, most owners of these properties are not in trouble, and the properties cash flow well enough that they can weather the current storm. Only sellers that really want to sell, or have to sell, will decide to compete.

What it means.
Knowing that 3-4 unit properties have usually sold for more per sqft than 5+ unit properties, means something has to give. With 5+ units only several quarters into a decline it is likely that these might drop some more from their current levels. However, it is likely that the volume of 5+ units will stay low as most of these owners don’t have to sell, and will prefer to have the cash flow. Better deals may be found in the 3 & 4 unit category and might also have more opportunity to bounce back, once foreclosures are cleared out.

However, I think it is likely that both markets will bounce back, because my rough calculations indicate both of these markets are undervalued.

Replacement Cost Says it’s time to buy.
There are several ways to appraise properties. Single family homes are priced by comparable sales, income properties are priced based upon their income. Another method of valuation is replacement cost. Replacement cost is determined by adding the cost of the structure plus the cost of the land.

Construction costs in Los Angeles have been around $200 to $300+ per sqft. when the market was hot. With the market slow down maybe building costs are more at the lower end. To be ultra conservative, I will say you can now build for $175 per sqft. But this is for new construction, so maybe we should value an older apartment for less. Maybe it is only worth $150 per sqft, which is what income property is selling for. But I have not yet included the land. Land costs in Los Angeles might be anywhere from $200,000 to $500,000 for a typical lot.

If income properties are selling for just the building’s replacement cost, not including land, they are significantly undervalued.

Is it time to buy?
When I look at this question, I ask myself “What could go wrong moving forward?” We could certainly have a prolonged recession, or even an depression. In this case, rents will come down, construction costs will come down, and we might be best to wait because prices may continue to come down.

Realistically what is likely to happen, is that eventually we will come out of this recession. Maybe it even takes 3 more years. But there are three things I think are fairly certain. First, no builder in their right mind will build rental units right now. Why would they if buildings are selling for less than production costs? Two, Los Angeles has continued to grow and will likely do so in the future. So additional supply should be non existent and demand, while temporarily weak should continue to grow. And finally, my personal hunch is that inflation will be on the horizon, in which case owing hard assets is better than holding cash. But even if I am wrong, if the building makes money and cash flows, then who cares about appreciation? Appreciation is just the icing on the cake.

Regarding inflation, I have read a lot of economic books in my lifetime, and one thing seems certain. Never in the history of fiat money (paper money) has a civilization not debased their currency if it wasn’t tied to gold (and then they still try). It appears that our government has cranked up the printing presses, and this will likely lead to inflation. Property owners benefit during times of inflation by keeping the government from reaching into their pocketbooks and stealing their money. And if leverage is used, returns are even further enhanced because today dollars are paid back with less valuable tomorrow dollars.

While things might go wrong, the greatest wealth in Real Estate is created during bad times. Most importantly, I am personally putting my money where my mouth is.

In the next article, I have included a quick primer on how we evaluate rental property.

Several blogs ago, I wrote about about different ways of calculating value, "Market Shows Signs of Good Relative Value".

Today I was reading several articles that highlighted historical valuations, based upon annual rents. One article mentioned that homes over the last 15 years have sold for 16.4 times the annual rent. Another article mentioned that said the number was 20times the annual rent. This second article said that at the peak of the market this number was more like 32 times.

If we take the example of a 3 bedroom 2 bath home in Los Altos that sells for $550,000 and rents for $2,500 per months, is this home fairly valued.

2,500 x 12 = $30,000

$550,000 / $30,000 = 18.3 times.

This is a number somewhere in between the 16.4x and 20x numbers referenced.

Does this mean that prices will not go down or even up. Heck no. But it is an indication that prices are much more likely to be stable in the Los Altos area of Long Beach.

Labels: Fair Value, Housing, long beach, Los Altos

Labels: Real Estate Bottoming?

Several months ago the SoCal MLS required agents to specify whether a listing was a short sale or not. It took a while for all listings to be updated, but now this is working well.

There are currently 1140 SFR homes for sale in Long Beach, 302 are designated as short sales, 838 are designated as NOT short sales. 302 + 838 = 1140. So all listings are are present and accounted for.

But how important are short sales in the the Long Beach marketplace? 302 of the 1140 total active listings is 26% of the market. But is it really that high, when we talk about closed sales? I don't think so.

Two factors will make short sales appear more important that they are.

1) Short sales sit on the market longer. If a good salable listing comes on the market and sells in 10 days but a short sale sits on the market for 100 days awaiting lender approval, it might appear that there are 10 times as many short sales compared to conventional listings, based on exposure. While it may not be 10:1, short sales certainly take more time to sell, if they sell at all. Which leads to the next point.

2) If they don't sell, then the listing is just noise, not actual market activity. Anecdotally, I hear that only about one in five short sales goes through.

So an estimate that short sales are less than 10% of the SFR market here in Long Beach, is just that, an estimate, but it may actually be less.

Once the accuracy of the Short Sale data starts working its way through to Closed Sales, we will really see how important they are.

My point is to focus on real activity. There is such hype about short sale this, short sale that. When in fact they just distract buyers and agents from acheiving their goals.

They appear important because some seem to be great deals and many are clog up the MLS, when in fact short sales may be just a mirage.

Labels: inventory, long beach, Short sales

I am not a fan of short sales. (http://www.lbre.com/pages/news/2008/why_buyers_should_avoid_short_sales.html) . But I am a big fan of analogies. And I finally figured out the most appropriate analogy.
A short sale is like dating a married guy, when what you are looking for is a commitment.
Certainly a married guy may leave his wife. If COULD and DOES happen. But odds are against it, and what about all of the other great guys (other homes) you will miss out on because you are waiting for an unlikely dream.
I am not saying that you shouldn't write an offer on a short sale. But why patiently wait around committed to a seller that can't commit to you. Your smartest move is to stay a free agent and keep looking at all available properties until the time that the real decision maker (the lender) approves the short sale at the price that you wanted.

Labels: short pays, Short sales

Having just written my last post, I am reminded of how today's correction compares to the Real Estate downturn of the 90's. And more importantly why the worst may be over.

When buyers just walk away from the table prices fall. Buyer disappear for various reasons. Maybe buyers leave the state to look for work, maybe they loose their job and decide not to buy a home. Whatever the reason may be, when buyers leave the marketplace prices drop. This happened for 4 years in the early 90's.

What took 4 years in the early 90's appears to have occured in only 4 months in late 2007. The last 4 months of 07 were very quiet, there were very few sales and very few buyers.

This is not the case right now. There are actually a lot of buyers looking, not necessarily a lot buyers buying, but a lot looking. When the price is right, they pounce. Multiple offers are not rare for well priced homes or bank repo's.

So maybe it is possible that the correction that took 4 years in the early 90's has been compressed into 4 months, and that the worst is over.

I wouldn't look for prices to shoot up, but I hope that price stability is on the horizon.