Long Beach Real Estate

Wednesday, April 9, 2008

How Long Will This Downturn Take?

While in my last several posts I posed some Bullish Scenarios, my prediction for the future of Real Estate is that it chugs sideways for several years. Maybe two, maybe three. Who really knows.

This is why.... On the demand side, the last two "bullish posts" make a case for buyers being willing to step in a purchase when homes are priced right, and there are quite a few buyers remaining on the sidelines.

But on the supply side, we do have an overhang of WEAK HANDS, buyers that essentially can't afford their home, because they paid too much, and overstepped their financial ability to pay.

The big questions is..... How long will it take to flush out these WEAK HANDS, and move the properties to STRONG HANDS (buyers that purchase at more reasonable prices and can truly afford the home). Two years, 3 years, 4 years. I truly don't know.

However long it takes, it will certainly be less in LA County, were the supply of homes could NOT rise to meet the demand, than in other outlying areas. So the overhang of inventory has not been compounded by new housing developments.

What this means to me. It is time to be looking, and buying, because when all of the weak hands fold and are gone, then we will start to see home prices start to creep back up. But certainly at a more normal pace.

And despite all of the gloom and doom. In LA County, there is just not enough supply to meet demand, and their never will be.

0 Comments:

Post a Comment

Home